{"id":11130,"date":"2021-04-29T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-29T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.emergers.se\/?p=11130"},"modified":"2021-05-05T21:10:01","modified_gmt":"2021-05-05T19:10:01","slug":"stirling_g","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/stirling_g\/","title":{"rendered":"Islossning med prestigekund banar v\u00e4g f\u00f6r utrullning"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Avtalet med Glencore \u00e4r en viktig bekr\u00e4ftelse fr\u00e5n en prestigekund som representerar en islossning f\u00f6r Swedish Stirling i ferrokromindustrin. Trots en f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning av tj\u00e4nst snarare \u00e4n enhet ser vi ett diskonterat nuv\u00e4rde per enhet i avtalet v\u00e4l \u00f6ver f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat pris per s\u00e5ld enhet. Med ytterligare tv\u00e5 kontrakt i pipeline, en potentiell lansering av utsl\u00e4ppsr\u00e4tter i Sydafrika och avsiktsf\u00f6rklaringen med SMS Group forts\u00e4tter vi se ett motiverat v\u00e4rde p\u00e5 26-36 SEK p\u00e5 18-24 m\u00e5n sikt. <\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Report:<\/strong> Johan Widmark | Date:<\/strong> 2021-04-29<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Diskonterat nuv\u00e4rde n\u00e4ra 12 MSEK per enhet<\/h5>

S\u00e5 kom \u00e4ntligen avtalet med Glencore som, \u00e4ven om 25 enheter var l\u00e4gre \u00e4n avsiktsf\u00f6rklaringen fr\u00e5n augusti 2020 p\u00e5 88 enheter, kan ses som en betydande vote of confidence fr\u00e5n den globala ledaren inom ferrokrom-industrin (Lion \u00e4r en av v\u00e4rldens st\u00f6rsta ferrokromsm\u00e4ltverk som dessutom har l\u00e4gst marginalkostnad), som sannolikt kommer r\u00f6ra upp aktivitet hos dess konkurrenter och l\u00e4mnar utrymme f\u00f6r ytterligare kontrakt p\u00e5 Lion fram\u00f6ver. Trots att det handlar om en tj\u00e4nstef\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning f\u00e5r v\u00e4rdet p\u00e5 motsvarande 413 MSEK (16,5 MSEK per enhet \u00f6ver \u00e5tta \u00e5r med en indexering som f\u00f6rskjuter tungpunkten mot slutet) anses som bra \u00e4ven om det ska t\u00e4cka finansiering och OPEX och d\u00e4rf\u00f6r inte kan j\u00e4mf\u00f6ras rakt av med f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljningspriset p\u00e5 ~8,5 MSEK. Efter r\u00e4nta och amorteringar och utan h\u00e4nsyn till OPEX r\u00e4knar vi med ett nettobidrag p\u00e5 totalt 290 MSEK, vilket diskonterat med 12% till idag motsvarar ett v\u00e4rde per PWR BLOK p\u00e5 n\u00e5got blygsamma 7 MSEK per enhet. Men eftersom det \u00e4r mycket osannolikt att man inte utnyttjar optionen att f\u00f6rl\u00e4nga avtalet med 7 \u00e5r (om inte Glencore frik\u00f6per enheterna), motsvarar det totala diskonterade nuv\u00e4rdet n\u00e4ra 12 MSEK per PWR BLOK.\u00a0<\/p>

Genererar int\u00e4kter fr\u00e5n f\u00f6rsta installation 2022<\/h5>

Med antagande om 90% drifttid uppg\u00e5r det genomsnittliga priset Glencore betalar f\u00f6r elen till ca 0,65 SEK\/kWh att j\u00e4mf\u00f6ra med det Eskoms pris p\u00e5 0,79 SEK\/kWh efter \u00e5rets h\u00f6jning av tarifferna. D\u00e5 Glencore-kontraktet kommer b\u00f6rja generera int\u00e4kter fr\u00e5n f\u00f6rsta installationen 2022 s\u00e5 \u00f6verger vi v\u00e5r f\u00f6rhoppning om att se en f\u00f6rsta s\u00e5ld enhet i \u00e5r. F\u00f6r de tv\u00e5 andra kunder Swedish Stirling f\u00f6rhandlar med ser vi ett leasinguppl\u00e4gg som mest sannolikt, som \u00e4ven kan innefatta STRLNG som leasinggivare. I det scenario d\u00e4r STRLNG \u00e4ger \u00f6ver 50% av leasingbolaget skulle det inneb\u00e4ra att en f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning ist\u00e4llet blir en leasingint\u00e4kt i STRLNGs r\u00e4kenskaper (p\u00e5 ett s\u00e4tt som liknar Glencoreavtalet), vilket inneb\u00e4r en h\u00f6g grad av os\u00e4kerhet i v\u00e5r prognos, \u00e4ven om v\u00e5ra volymantaganden visar sig r\u00e4tt.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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L\u00e4s v\u00e5r tidigare analys p\u00e5 Swedish Stirling h\u00e4r\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Kan ta ansenlig del av kassan i anspr\u00e5k<\/h5>

Med antagande om en genomsnittlig produktionskostnad f\u00f6r de 25 PWR BLOK till Glencore p\u00e5 6 MSEK per enhet, och att SPV finansieras med 50% EK och 50% l\u00e5n, s\u00e5 kan SPV ta 75 MSEK av bolagets kassa i anspr\u00e5k fr\u00e5n 2023, vilket skulle p\u00e5kalla ett f\u00f6rnyat behov att st\u00e4rka kassan. Det \u00e4r dock v\u00e4ntat med en st\u00f6rre emission inf\u00f6r den stora uppskalningen, som sannolikt kommer efter att STRLNG landat avtalen med den tv\u00e5 andra kunderna i Sydafrika och bilden av det totala kapitalbehovet konkretiserats. Med en efterl\u00e4ngtad islossning med prestigekunden Glencore, det nyliga avtalet med SMS Group i Europa, ytterligare tv\u00e5 stora kontraktsf\u00f6rhandlingar i pipeline och en option i en potentiell lansering av utsl\u00e4ppsr\u00e4tter i Sydafrika, ser vi fortsatt potential f\u00f6r aktien och efter en viss omstrukturering av v\u00e5r prognos beh\u00e5ller vi v\u00e5rt motiverade v\u00e4rde p\u00e5 26-36 SEK p\u00e5 18-24 m\u00e5nader sikt.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tL\u00c4S ANALYSEN I PDF H\u00c4R <\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Johan Widmark | Tel: 0739196641 | Mail: johan@emergers.se<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Avtalet med Glencore \u00e4r en viktig bekr\u00e4ftelse fr\u00e5n en prestigekund som representerar en islossning f\u00f6r Swedish Stirling i ferrokromindustrin. Trots en f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning av tj\u00e4nst snarare \u00e4n enhet ser vi ett diskonterat nuv\u00e4rde per enhet i avtalet v\u00e4l \u00f6ver f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat pris per s\u00e5ld enhet. Med ytterligare tv\u00e5 kontrakt i pipeline, en potentiell lansering av utsl\u00e4ppsr\u00e4tter i …<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10560,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"spay_email":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[43,35],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/PWR-BLOK-2.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11130"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11130"}],"version-history":[{"count":36,"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11130\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11202,"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11130\/revisions\/11202"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10560"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.emergers.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}